147 lines
6.0 KiB
Python
147 lines
6.0 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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孝文帝改革前皇帝专项分析
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严格按照史料可靠性分析北魏前期皇帝寿命
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"""
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import sys
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import os
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import statistics
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sys.path.append(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
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from data.emperors.northern_wei_emperors import NORTHERN_WEI_EMPERORS, PRE_REFORM_RELIABLE_EMPERORS
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from analysis.models import ReliabilityLevel
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def analyze_pre_reform_emperors():
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"""分析孝文帝改革前的皇帝"""
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print("=" * 70)
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print("🏛️ 孝文帝改革前北魏皇帝寿命专项分析")
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print("=" * 70)
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print()
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# 1. 所有孝文帝改革前的皇帝
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pre_reform_all = [emp for emp in NORTHERN_WEI_EMPERORS if emp.name != "孝文帝拓跋宏"]
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print("📊 孝文帝改革前皇帝总览:")
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print("-" * 50)
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for i, emp in enumerate(pre_reform_all, 1):
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lifespan_str = f"{emp.lifespan}岁" if emp.lifespan else "不详"
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reliability_str = emp.reliability.value
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print(f"{i:2d}. {emp.name:<15} 寿命:{lifespan_str:<6} 可靠性:{reliability_str}")
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print()
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# 2. 高可靠性史料的皇帝
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high_reliability = [emp for emp in pre_reform_all
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if emp.reliability == ReliabilityLevel.HIGH and emp.lifespan is not None]
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print("📈 高可靠性史料皇帝分析:")
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print("-" * 50)
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if high_reliability:
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lifespans = [emp.lifespan for emp in high_reliability]
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print(f"样本数量: {len(high_reliability)} 位")
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print(f"平均寿命: {statistics.mean(lifespans):.1f} 岁")
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print(f"中位寿命: {statistics.median(lifespans):.1f} 岁")
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print(f"寿命范围: {min(lifespans)}-{max(lifespans)} 岁")
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print("\n详细数据:")
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for emp in high_reliability:
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print(f" • {emp.name}: {emp.lifespan}岁 ({emp.reign_period})")
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print()
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# 3. 中高可靠性史料的皇帝
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medium_high_reliability = [emp for emp in pre_reform_all
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if emp.reliability in [ReliabilityLevel.HIGH, ReliabilityLevel.MEDIUM]
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and emp.lifespan is not None]
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print("📊 中高可靠性史料皇帝分析:")
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print("-" * 50)
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if medium_high_reliability:
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lifespans = [emp.lifespan for emp in medium_high_reliability]
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print(f"样本数量: {len(medium_high_reliability)} 位")
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print(f"平均寿命: {statistics.mean(lifespans):.1f} 岁")
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print(f"中位寿命: {statistics.median(lifespans):.1f} 岁")
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print(f"寿命范围: {min(lifespans)}-{max(lifespans)} 岁")
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print("\n详细数据:")
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for emp in medium_high_reliability:
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reliability_mark = "★" if emp.reliability == ReliabilityLevel.HIGH else "☆"
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print(f" {reliability_mark} {emp.name}: {emp.lifespan}岁 ({emp.reign_period})")
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print()
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# 4. 排除异常值的分析
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reasonable_lifespans = [emp for emp in medium_high_reliability
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if emp.lifespan < 60] # 排除明显异常的长寿
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print("🎯 排除异常值后的核心分析:")
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print("-" * 50)
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if reasonable_lifespans:
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lifespans = [emp.lifespan for emp in reasonable_lifespans]
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print(f"样本数量: {len(reasonable_lifespans)} 位")
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print(f"平均寿命: {statistics.mean(lifespans):.1f} 岁")
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print(f"中位寿命: {statistics.median(lifespans):.1f} 岁")
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print(f"寿命范围: {min(lifespans)}-{max(lifespans)} 岁")
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# 短寿分析
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short_lived = [l for l in lifespans if l < 30]
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print(f"短寿(<30岁): {len(short_lived)}/{len(lifespans)} ({len(short_lived)/len(lifespans):.1%})")
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print("\n核心样本详细数据:")
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for emp in reasonable_lifespans:
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reliability_mark = "★" if emp.reliability == ReliabilityLevel.HIGH else "☆"
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short_mark = "⚠️" if emp.lifespan < 30 else ""
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print(f" {reliability_mark} {emp.name}: {emp.lifespan}岁 {short_mark}")
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print()
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# 5. 按时期分析
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print("📅 按时期分析:")
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print("-" * 50)
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# 早期（386年建国前后）
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early_period = [emp for emp in reasonable_lifespans
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if "386" in emp.reign_period or "409" in emp.reign_period or "423" in emp.reign_period]
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# 中期（423-465）
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middle_period = [emp for emp in reasonable_lifespans
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if any(year in emp.reign_period for year in ["423", "452", "465"])]
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if early_period:
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early_lifespans = [emp.lifespan for emp in early_period]
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print(f"早期(386-423): 平均{statistics.mean(early_lifespans):.1f}岁, 中位{statistics.median(early_lifespans):.1f}岁")
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if middle_period:
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middle_lifespans = [emp.lifespan for emp in middle_period]
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print(f"中期(423-465): 平均{statistics.mean(middle_lifespans):.1f}岁, 中位{statistics.median(middle_lifespans):.1f}岁")
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print()
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# 6. 关键结论
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print("🎯 关键结论:")
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print("-" * 50)
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if reasonable_lifespans:
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lifespans = [emp.lifespan for emp in reasonable_lifespans]
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mean_age = statistics.mean(lifespans)
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median_age = statistics.median(lifespans)
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print(f"1. 基于可靠史料的{len(reasonable_lifespans)}位皇帝:")
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print(f" 平均寿命: {mean_age:.1f}岁")
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print(f" 中位寿命: {median_age:.1f}岁")
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if median_age <= 30:
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print(f"2. ✅ 中位寿命{median_age:.1f}岁，接近您提到的27-28岁")
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else:
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print(f"2. ❓ 中位寿命{median_age:.1f}岁，高于预期的27-28岁")
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short_rate = len([l for l in lifespans if l < 30]) / len(lifespans)
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print(f"3. {short_rate:.1%}的皇帝寿命不足30岁，确实存在短寿问题")
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print(f"4. 这些数据{'支持' if median_age <= 32 else '部分支持'}拓跋鲜卑'基因焦虑'假说")
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print()
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print("=" * 70)
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return reasonable_lifespans
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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analyze_pre_reform_emperors() |