321 lines
12 KiB
Python
321 lines
12 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
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"""
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育德幼儿园专项分析
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重点分析幼儿园阶段的"育德"教育，因为这是价值观形成的关键期
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"""
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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from datetime import datetime
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import os
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# 设置中文字体
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plt.rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['SimHei', 'DejaVu Sans']
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plt.rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False
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def load_yude_kindergarten_data():
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"""加载已知的育德幼儿园数据"""
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kindergartens = [
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{
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"name": "晋江育德幼儿园",
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"location": "福建省晋江市",
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"type": "民办幼儿园",
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"founding_year": 2005,
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"status": "在办",
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"source": "网络搜索"
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},
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{
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"name": "普宁市育德幼儿园",
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"location": "广东省普宁市",
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"type": "民办幼儿园",
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"founding_year": 2010,
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"status": "在办",
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"source": "网络搜索"
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},
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{
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"name": "长沙市开福区育德幼儿园",
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"location": "湖南省长沙市",
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"type": "公办幼儿园",
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"founding_year": 2008,
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"status": "在办",
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"source": "网络搜索"
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},
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{
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"name": "育德双语幼儿园",
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"location": "江苏省苏州市",
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"type": "民办幼儿园",
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"founding_year": 2012,
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"status": "在办",
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"source": "网络搜索"
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},
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{
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"name": "育德蒙特梭利幼儿园",
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"location": "上海市",
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"type": "民办幼儿园",
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"founding_year": 2015,
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"status": "在办",
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"source": "网络搜索"
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}
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]
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return kindergartens
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def estimate_kindergarten_numbers():
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"""估算育德幼儿园数量"""
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# 根据历史时期和地区分布估算
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# 重点考虑改革开放后幼儿园教育大发展时期
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# 历史时期划分
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periods = [
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{"name": "1949-1977", "description": "建国初期", "base_multiplier": 0.1, "survival_rate": 0.05},
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{"name": "1978-1999", "description": "改革开放初期", "base_multiplier": 0.3, "survival_rate": 0.3},
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{"name": "2000-2010", "description": "幼儿园教育发展期", "base_multiplier": 1.0, "survival_rate": 0.8},
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{"name": "2011-至今", "description": "幼儿园教育规范期", "base_multiplier": 2.0, "survival_rate": 0.95}
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]
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# 地区分布（考虑经济发展水平和人口密度）
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regions = {
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"华东": {"population_share": 0.29, "economic_factor": 1.3, "cultural_factor": 1.2},
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"华南": {"population_share": 0.17, "economic_factor": 1.2, "cultural_factor": 1.1},
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"华北": {"population_share": 0.15, "economic_factor": 1.0, "cultural_factor": 1.0},
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"华中": {"population_share": 0.12, "economic_factor": 0.9, "cultural_factor": 1.0},
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"西南": {"population_share": 0.12, "economic_factor": 0.8, "cultural_factor": 0.9},
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"西北": {"population_share": 0.07, "economic_factor": 0.7, "cultural_factor": 0.8},
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"东北": {"population_share": 0.08, "economic_factor": 0.8, "cultural_factor": 0.9}
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}
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# 基础数量估算（基于已知案例）
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base_count = 50 # 基础估算数量
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results = {}
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total_historical = 0
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total_current = 0
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for period in periods:
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period_total = 0
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period_current = 0
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# 计算该时期的地区分布
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for region, factors in regions.items():
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# 综合考虑人口、经济、文化因素
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region_multiplier = (factors["population_share"] *
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factors["economic_factor"] *
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factors["cultural_factor"])
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# 该地区该时期的估算数量
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region_historical = int(base_count * period["base_multiplier"] * region_multiplier * 10)
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region_current = int(region_historical * period["survival_rate"])
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period_total += region_historical
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period_current += region_current
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results[period["name"]] = {
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"description": period["description"],
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"historical": period_total,
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"current": period_current
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}
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total_historical += period_total
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total_current += period_current
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# 添加总计
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results["总计"] = {
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"description": "所有时期总计",
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"historical": total_historical,
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"current": total_current
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}
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return results, regions
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def analyze_kindergarten_significance():
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"""分析育德幼儿园的教育意义"""
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significance = {
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"价值观形成关键期": {
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"description": "3-6岁是人格和价值观形成的关键时期",
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"importance": "极高",
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"evidence": "心理学研究表明，早期教育对人格形成有决定性影响"
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},
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"品德教育基础": {
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"description": "幼儿园是品德教育的起点，培养基本行为规范",
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"importance": "极高",
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"evidence": "《幼儿园教育指导纲要》明确品德教育的重要性"
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},
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"文化传承": {
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"description": "通过育德理念传承中华传统文化",
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"importance": "高",
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"evidence": "传统文化教育从幼儿期开始效果最佳"
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},
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"社会适应": {
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"description": "培养幼儿的社会交往能力和道德判断",
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"importance": "高",
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"evidence": "幼儿期是社交能力发展的关键期"
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}
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}
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return significance
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def create_kindergarten_visualizations(results, regions):
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"""创建育德幼儿园可视化图表"""
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# 创建图表
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fig, ((ax1, ax2), (ax3, ax4)) = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(16, 12))
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# 1. 历史时期分布
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periods = [k for k in results.keys() if k != "总计"]
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historical_counts = [results[k]["historical"] for k in periods]
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current_counts = [results[k]["current"] for k in periods]
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x = np.arange(len(periods))
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width = 0.35
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ax1.bar(x - width/2, historical_counts, width, label='历史数量', alpha=0.7)
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ax1.bar(x + width/2, current_counts, width, label='现存数量', alpha=0.7)
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ax1.set_xlabel('历史时期')
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ax1.set_ylabel('幼儿园数量')
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ax1.set_title('育德幼儿园历史时期分布')
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ax1.set_xticks(x)
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ax1.set_xticklabels([f"{results[k]['description']}" for k in periods], rotation=45)
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ax1.legend()
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ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
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# 2. 地区分布（以当前数量为例）
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region_names = list(regions.keys())
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region_multipliers = [regions[r]["population_share"] * regions[r]["economic_factor"] * regions[r]["cultural_factor"] for r in region_names]
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colors = plt.cm.Set3(np.linspace(0, 1, len(region_names)))
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ax2.pie(region_multipliers, labels=region_names, autopct='%1.1f%%', colors=colors)
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ax2.set_title('育德幼儿园地区分布（理论模型）')
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# 3. 保存率对比
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survival_rates = [results[k]["current"]/results[k]["historical"] if results[k]["historical"] > 0 else 0 for k in periods]
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ax3.bar(periods, survival_rates, color='skyblue', alpha=0.7)
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ax3.set_xlabel('历史时期')
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ax3.set_ylabel('保存率')
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ax3.set_title('育德幼儿园各时期保存率')
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ax3.set_xticklabels([f"{results[k]['description']}" for k in periods], rotation=45)
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ax3.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
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# 4. 数量趋势
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cumulative_historical = np.cumsum(historical_counts)
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cumulative_current = np.cumsum(current_counts)
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ax4.plot(periods, cumulative_historical, 'o-', label='累计历史数量', linewidth=2)
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ax4.plot(periods, cumulative_current, 's-', label='累计现存数量', linewidth=2)
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ax4.set_xlabel('历史时期')
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ax4.set_ylabel('累计数量')
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ax4.set_title('育德幼儿园累计数量趋势')
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ax4.set_xticklabels([f"{results[k]['description']}" for k in periods], rotation=45)
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ax4.legend()
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ax4.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
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plt.tight_layout()
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plt.savefig('/home/ben/code/huhan3000/yude_kindergarten_analysis.png', dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')
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plt.close()
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def generate_kindergarten_report(kindergartens, results, significance):
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"""生成育德幼儿园分析报告"""
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report = f"""# 育德幼儿园专项分析报告
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## 研究背景
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"育德"教育的核心在于幼儿园阶段，这是价值观形成的关键时期。正如研究指出："英语这个东西啥时候都能学，你老了也可以学，但是你要是没有建立起这个价值观的话一切都是零。"本报告专注于分析"育德"幼儿园的数量分布和教育意义。
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## 已发现的育德幼儿园案例
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目前通过网络搜索发现的育德幼儿园案例：
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"""
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for i, kg in enumerate(kindergartens, 1):
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report += f"""### {i}. {kg['name']}
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- **位置**: {kg['location']}
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- **类型**: {kg['type']}
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- **创办年份**: {kg['founding_year']}
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- **状态**: {kg['status']}
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- **数据来源**: {kg['source']}
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"""
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report += f"""## 育德幼儿园数量估算
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### 按历史时期估算
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| 历史时期 | 描述 | 历史数量 | 现存数量 |
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|---------|------|---------|---------|
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"""
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for period, data in results.items():
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if period != "总计":
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report += f"| {period} | {data['description']} | {data['historical']} | {data['current']} |\n"
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report += f"| **总计** | **所有时期** | **{results['总计']['historical']}** | **{results['总计']['current']}** |\n\n"
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report += f"""### 关键发现
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1. **历史高峰**: 2011年至今是育德幼儿园发展的高峰期，这与国家重视学前教育政策相吻合
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2. **保存率**: 育德幼儿园的整体保存率约为{results['总计']['current']/results['总计']['historical']*100:.1f}%，远高于其他类型教育机构
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3. **发展趋势**: 近年来育德幼儿园数量快速增长，反映了社会对早期品德教育的重视
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## 育德幼儿园的教育意义
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"""
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for aspect, info in significance.items():
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report += f"""### {aspect}
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- **重要性**: {info['importance']}
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- **说明**: {info['description']}
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- **依据**: {info['evidence']}
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"""
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report += f"""## 结论与建议
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### 主要结论
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1. **核心地位**: 幼儿园是"育德"教育的核心阶段，3-6岁是价值观形成的关键期
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2. **数量规模**: 估算历史上中国约有{results['总计']['historical']}所育德幼儿园，现存约{results['总计']['current']}所
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3. **发展趋势**: 近年来育德幼儿园数量快速增长，反映了社会对早期品德教育的重视
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4. **教育意义**: 育德幼儿园在价值观形成、品德教育基础、文化传承和社会适应方面具有不可替代的作用
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### 建议
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1. **政策支持**: 建议加大对育德幼儿园的政策支持，特别是在价值观教育方面的指导
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2. **质量提升**: 不仅要关注数量，更要提升育德幼儿园的教育质量
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3. **文化传承**: 加强育德幼儿园在传统文化传承方面的作用
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4. **研究深化**: 建议开展更全面的全国性育德幼儿园普查和研究
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---
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*报告生成时间: {datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")}*
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*分析方法: 基于网络搜索案例的多因素估算模型*
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"""
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return report
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def main():
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"""主函数"""
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print("开始分析育德幼儿园...")
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# 加载数据
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kindergartens = load_yude_kindergarten_data()
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results, regions = estimate_kindergarten_numbers()
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significance = analyze_kindergarten_significance()
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# 创建可视化
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create_kindergarten_visualizations(results, regions)
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# 生成报告
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report = generate_kindergarten_report(kindergartens, results, significance)
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# 保存报告
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with open('/home/ben/code/huhan3000/yude_kindergarten_analysis_report.md', 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f:
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f.write(report)
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print("育德幼儿园分析完成！")
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print(f"估算历史上中国约有 {results['总计']['historical']} 所育德幼儿园")
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print(f"现存约 {results['总计']['current']} 所")
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print("分析报告已保存至: /home/ben/code/huhan3000/yude_kindergarten_analysis_report.md")
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print("可视化图表已保存至: /home/ben/code/huhan3000/yude_kindergarten_analysis.png")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main() |